17 November 2023

12:20 – 13:05

Amphithéâtre Say

Jacques Treiner

Jacques Treiner is a theoretical physicist, former professor at the Université Pierre et Marie, now associate researcher at the Laboratoire interdisciplinaire des énergies de demain, Université de Paris, and Chairman of the Shift Project’s Committee of Experts. In addition to his research career (specializing in quantum fluids), he has always been concerned with teaching his discipline and the science-society interface. He is the author of textbooks and thematic reviews on various subjects (Einstein, Energy-climate coupling, Deterministic chaos, Brownian motion), as well as books and popular articles (notably on the age of the Earth, the greenhouse effect and the factory of ignorance). From 1999 to 2002, he chaired the group of experts responsible for the physics and chemistry curricula taught at the lycée général et technologique between 2000 and 2011. With F. Gicquel, he has translated Naomi Oreskès and Eric Conway’s Les Marchands de doute, Clive Hamilton’s Requiem pour l’espèce humaine, David Deutsch’s Le Commencement de l’infini and Kerry Emmanuel’s Le climat en huit leçons: Fission, performed at the Théâtre de la Reine Blanche in 2016, and author of a “-Seul en scène-“-: La fragile singularité de l’esprit humain-“, presented at the Théâtre de la Reine Blanche in June 2023.

Conference: Are the IPCC’s worst-case scenarios realistic?

The idea that the massive use of fossil fuels over the last 150 years or so is leading to global climate change is now generally accepted: the various IPCC reports, which take stock of the world’s scientific production on the subject every 5 years, have at least served this purpose. This knowledge forms the basis of the various scenarios for phasing out fossil energy resources: this first carbon constraint is climatic in origin. There is, however, a second carbon constraint, this time linked to the fact that these resources represent exhaustible stocks. Current best estimates of exploitable reserves (proven and probable) point to a serious squeeze in the coming decades, at least for oil and gas, as well as for Chinese coal. Rather than endure this squeeze, we need to anticipate and organize it. This leads to the following counter-intuitive situation: there are enough fossil reserves to produce a warming of 3 to 3.5°C, but probably not enough to implement vigorous adaptation or substitution policies. We will examine some of the consequences of this situation.