17 November 2023

09:35 – 10:20

Amphithéâtre Say

Olivier Vidal

Olivier Vidal is CNRS Research Director at the Grenoble Institute of Earth Sciences. A geologist by training, he develops models linking energy, raw materials and economic development. He was scientific coordinator of the ERA-MIN European network on the industrial needs of non-energy raw materials and is currently coordinating the multi-disciplinary PEPR “Subsoil as a common good” for the CNRS.

Conference: Are our needs for fossil fuels compatible with their natural availability?

Metal and cement consumption has doubled since the beginning of the 21° century, and if the trend continues, by 2050 we will have to produce more metals than we have since the beginning of mankind. It is in this tense context that the issues of raw materials and energy supply arise, with two opposing visions: some anticipate a shortage in the course of the century, while others assert that technological evolution and the exploitation of deep-sea or offshore resources, as well as recycling, will enable us to maintain the increase in production observed over the last century (3-5% per year). Dynamic modelling shows that there is no single solution, but it does provide a better understanding of the couplings between reserves-primary production and recycling-economy-energy, and enables us to compare the impacts of different global energy scenarios.